The persistent flattening of the Treasury yield curve appears to still have legs, and that may be a sign of economic trouble ahead. On Wednesday, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting revealed policy makers’ resolve to stick to their tightening path. The difference between five- and 30-year yields fell below 93 basis points, near the lowest since the start of the last recession. Five-year Treasury notes are among the most sensitive to Fed policy.
And since 1992, the 30Y-5Y curve slope is deteriorating as if the US is approaching another recession.
With The Fed talking about raising their target rate in December, is this the end of The Fed’s Snake Oil? Or just the beginning of QE4?