At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.
And like the US, the measured inflation rate in the Gyrozone is forecast to be 1.2% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.
Of course, “Super Mario” thinks everything is beautiful in the European Zone. Although of the big three (Germany, UK and France), only Germany has YoY GDP growth of over 2%.
The good news? The number of EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) countries with negative 2 year sovereign yields stayed at 19.
Here is Provident’s earnings-per-share plunge (red line) and the crash in their stock price. The company now expects a “pre-exceptional” loss for the home credit business of between 80 million pounds ($103 million) and 120 million pounds. It predicted a 60 million-pound profit as recently as June, when it issued a profit warning as loan sales and debt collections plunged. Wolstenholme said in the statement that it will take “an elongated period of time” to turn the division around.
And here is Provident’s stock price compared to Royal Bank of Scotland’s stock price to highlight RBS’s decline around the global financial crisis and Provident’s rise then decline.